Post by WWJDthrume on Sept 16, 2004 23:05:26 GMT -5
Posted by: zeninvestor32
In reply to: narvo who wrote msg# 13029 Date:9/16/2004 8:12:33 PM
Post #of 13081
NARVO
a very good question and one i've posed a few times before. almost 100% of the pinks/otcs I've ever watched will let the stock run on similar buying pressure as we've seen. At the very least they know they can make money going up and down (MMs profit on volatility) and they can make MORE on their shorts by shorting it down from higher prices. I have no doubt that if JEFF stepped off the ask at times in the past 2 months, they could have EASILY slung this stock back and forth between .0004 and .001 for massive profit. But they didn't.
And if it's Urban or someone else dumping as so many bashers like to speculate, why wouldn't they want to sell at a higher price as well? There is absolutely no logical or rational reason to have kept the price pressed down for nearly 6 weeks straight on 95% buying unless there is a clear AGENDA. IMO, the market makers believe they can avoid having to cover any dividends. The UCAD shares are restricted for a year, so no cover there (and all the BS about the company unrestricting them is BS until it's in a PR). The CIM shares are private and god knows when they'll ever go public and force a cover. And as for GEMM, the market makers are probably willing to go short there because if the shares are unrestricted, everyone will sell quickly and the market makers can cover relatively cheaply. If the GEMM shares are restricted, then they don't have to cover again just like UCAD.
So what's the end game? MMs imo want to make it through the dividend period with the price capped still. I can PROMISE you that if they can manage to do this, they will get what they have been after for months, wholesale retail dumping. People will completely lose confidence and sell. People will distrust the company greatly and sell. And as the October party (which I have cautioned against) gets closer, more and more will sell and bash the hell out of the stock. The MMs absolutely know this and they are absolutely right IF in fact all this happens without any company clarity on share structure, valuation or other big news. The shorts seem to be flipping off CMKX with this strategy but, in all likelihood, they believe that either the company will end up releasing news that nobody will care about or will not release news at all. And then the shorts will start to actually win.
This is why they have held on and capped this stock for months imo. I believe they think this company truly will not be able to do anything but release an OS that is large, not prove they have any diamonds of significance in their drilling, or at the very least not be able to establish that anything of significance will happen until many years out if, and only if, the bulk sampling proves reasonable. In all honesty, the shorts may actually be sitting back right now feeling they have a chance in this game.
I believe Roger will deliver a death blow that will stop these shorting antics. What it is has probably been discussed by SOMEBODY at some point but it's nearly impossible to figure out whose theory is right. My past experience has been that when the pressure is on the company to deliver powerful news that will truly force a short covering, that pinks/otcs NEVER deliver. EVER. That may sound somber and sobering. But it is the truth. So why is my money in cmkx? Because I believe that is about to change for the first time. But for now, why in the world would the shorts buck the odds? History has taught them that pinks/otcs always rattle their sabers but never deliver. If the shorts are truly stuck (and I believe they are) why in the world would they bail early if all their chips are basically all in. At the very least, they're gonna force Roger/Urban to show their hand before ever conceding defeat.
So right now, we have a massive game of chicken IMO. The longs are holding on waiting for the company to drop down four aces. The shorts are holding on with the belief that this is one huge bluff by Urban.
At this stage, we are all waiting to see who has the better hand.
Z
As always, these are my personal opinions.
Hopefully nobody in here is investing anything but "fun" money that they can afford to gamble with.
www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=4058140
In reply to: narvo who wrote msg# 13029 Date:9/16/2004 8:12:33 PM
Post #of 13081
NARVO
a very good question and one i've posed a few times before. almost 100% of the pinks/otcs I've ever watched will let the stock run on similar buying pressure as we've seen. At the very least they know they can make money going up and down (MMs profit on volatility) and they can make MORE on their shorts by shorting it down from higher prices. I have no doubt that if JEFF stepped off the ask at times in the past 2 months, they could have EASILY slung this stock back and forth between .0004 and .001 for massive profit. But they didn't.
And if it's Urban or someone else dumping as so many bashers like to speculate, why wouldn't they want to sell at a higher price as well? There is absolutely no logical or rational reason to have kept the price pressed down for nearly 6 weeks straight on 95% buying unless there is a clear AGENDA. IMO, the market makers believe they can avoid having to cover any dividends. The UCAD shares are restricted for a year, so no cover there (and all the BS about the company unrestricting them is BS until it's in a PR). The CIM shares are private and god knows when they'll ever go public and force a cover. And as for GEMM, the market makers are probably willing to go short there because if the shares are unrestricted, everyone will sell quickly and the market makers can cover relatively cheaply. If the GEMM shares are restricted, then they don't have to cover again just like UCAD.
So what's the end game? MMs imo want to make it through the dividend period with the price capped still. I can PROMISE you that if they can manage to do this, they will get what they have been after for months, wholesale retail dumping. People will completely lose confidence and sell. People will distrust the company greatly and sell. And as the October party (which I have cautioned against) gets closer, more and more will sell and bash the hell out of the stock. The MMs absolutely know this and they are absolutely right IF in fact all this happens without any company clarity on share structure, valuation or other big news. The shorts seem to be flipping off CMKX with this strategy but, in all likelihood, they believe that either the company will end up releasing news that nobody will care about or will not release news at all. And then the shorts will start to actually win.
This is why they have held on and capped this stock for months imo. I believe they think this company truly will not be able to do anything but release an OS that is large, not prove they have any diamonds of significance in their drilling, or at the very least not be able to establish that anything of significance will happen until many years out if, and only if, the bulk sampling proves reasonable. In all honesty, the shorts may actually be sitting back right now feeling they have a chance in this game.
I believe Roger will deliver a death blow that will stop these shorting antics. What it is has probably been discussed by SOMEBODY at some point but it's nearly impossible to figure out whose theory is right. My past experience has been that when the pressure is on the company to deliver powerful news that will truly force a short covering, that pinks/otcs NEVER deliver. EVER. That may sound somber and sobering. But it is the truth. So why is my money in cmkx? Because I believe that is about to change for the first time. But for now, why in the world would the shorts buck the odds? History has taught them that pinks/otcs always rattle their sabers but never deliver. If the shorts are truly stuck (and I believe they are) why in the world would they bail early if all their chips are basically all in. At the very least, they're gonna force Roger/Urban to show their hand before ever conceding defeat.
So right now, we have a massive game of chicken IMO. The longs are holding on waiting for the company to drop down four aces. The shorts are holding on with the belief that this is one huge bluff by Urban.
At this stage, we are all waiting to see who has the better hand.
Z
As always, these are my personal opinions.
Hopefully nobody in here is investing anything but "fun" money that they can afford to gamble with.
www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=4058140
