Post by Savant on Jul 13, 2004 10:15:53 GMT -5
Confirmation of Monday’s reversals…? Published 11:15 EDT July 13 2004
In our pre-opening Monday report, we suggested Monday or Tuesday could be especially pivotal in determining whether this week would be the important turnaround week in a mid-month stock market reversal. By early afternoon, it became apparent to us that the market did not seem to want to go any lower and appeared to exhibit signs of stabilization ahead of a potential rally.
The catalyst for that rally came swiftly and unexpectedly for some, but not for us and some of our most immediate clients who we managed to alert to the dual unfolding developments of a severe selloff from the highs in the Energy sector and powerful and broad based rally in stocks.
The speed with which events unfolded warranted the kind of immediate action that necessitates or illustrates the extreme need for the kind of service that we hope to be launching in the very near future. Through this new specialized service we hope to be able to alert our clients to rapidly unfolding market events in such a way that we believe the events of yesterday on a one contract basis for the energy sector and allocating only one contract for the S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow would have yielded over $10,000 profit in around 35 minutes or so. Furthermore, our views on the US Dollar gaining some strength and the currencies running into significant resistance proved to be somewhat prescient as currencies plunged late in the day and continued overnight, dragging down the precious metals in the process. This could be highly significant for the US Dollar which has reacted positively to the support area at 87 on the Dollar index that now potentially portends the possibility of a significant rally unfolding that only an immediate further breakdown in the US would negate. This further implies that precious metals could be under pressure for a while also and in support of that the CRB inflation index has also been under recent pressure. So when we stated a week or so ago that we were not entirely convinced by the rally in precious metals, these were some of the reasons why. A late plunge in the grain complex on the heels of our major grain reversal of last week did not help matters either.
As it was, the Energy short positions we put on last Friday yielded a total of $2330 in profits and whilst some might say we were correct in our decision and had the right outlook on the Energy sector with hindsight following yesterdays plunge, which would have added and additional $8,000 or so, that is easy with hindsight. You simply cannot take the risk of being nakedly exposed in these markets very long or the market will destroy you. You have to try and control the market rather than letting it control you, which tends to happen when you are placed under pressure with a losing position where you are at the mercy of the markets, and are forced to make an emotional decision instead of a more logical one. Such a situation could have happened yesterday, had you been caught short the energy markets. In a perfect World and with the aid of our forthcoming alert service, which enables us to effect some degree of control rather than be controlled, we might have even been able to scalp some gains on the upside from the big blow-off move that unfolded prior to the Energy markets doing an about face and putting in a significant and albeit short-lived top, which our indicators and technology also managed to capture, before going into the rapid plunge that occurred so dramatically with domino effect consequences that impacted the metals and currencies so negatively and the stock market more positively.
Our suggestion to buy cotton mid-morning caught almost the exact lows of the session yielding almost $800 into today’s open and about the same for Fluid Milk which we were executed into yesterday on a stop basis at 14.40. Sell both contracts right here at the market. Let’s take the $$.
That will give us some cushioning in case the Coffee contract, which we were also executed into this morning goes wrong. What has to happen today and tomorrow is for the market to hold these gains or survive a retest of some sort with success.
Have a great Tuesday
Trade Well…<br>
Savant
In our pre-opening Monday report, we suggested Monday or Tuesday could be especially pivotal in determining whether this week would be the important turnaround week in a mid-month stock market reversal. By early afternoon, it became apparent to us that the market did not seem to want to go any lower and appeared to exhibit signs of stabilization ahead of a potential rally.
The catalyst for that rally came swiftly and unexpectedly for some, but not for us and some of our most immediate clients who we managed to alert to the dual unfolding developments of a severe selloff from the highs in the Energy sector and powerful and broad based rally in stocks.
The speed with which events unfolded warranted the kind of immediate action that necessitates or illustrates the extreme need for the kind of service that we hope to be launching in the very near future. Through this new specialized service we hope to be able to alert our clients to rapidly unfolding market events in such a way that we believe the events of yesterday on a one contract basis for the energy sector and allocating only one contract for the S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow would have yielded over $10,000 profit in around 35 minutes or so. Furthermore, our views on the US Dollar gaining some strength and the currencies running into significant resistance proved to be somewhat prescient as currencies plunged late in the day and continued overnight, dragging down the precious metals in the process. This could be highly significant for the US Dollar which has reacted positively to the support area at 87 on the Dollar index that now potentially portends the possibility of a significant rally unfolding that only an immediate further breakdown in the US would negate. This further implies that precious metals could be under pressure for a while also and in support of that the CRB inflation index has also been under recent pressure. So when we stated a week or so ago that we were not entirely convinced by the rally in precious metals, these were some of the reasons why. A late plunge in the grain complex on the heels of our major grain reversal of last week did not help matters either.
As it was, the Energy short positions we put on last Friday yielded a total of $2330 in profits and whilst some might say we were correct in our decision and had the right outlook on the Energy sector with hindsight following yesterdays plunge, which would have added and additional $8,000 or so, that is easy with hindsight. You simply cannot take the risk of being nakedly exposed in these markets very long or the market will destroy you. You have to try and control the market rather than letting it control you, which tends to happen when you are placed under pressure with a losing position where you are at the mercy of the markets, and are forced to make an emotional decision instead of a more logical one. Such a situation could have happened yesterday, had you been caught short the energy markets. In a perfect World and with the aid of our forthcoming alert service, which enables us to effect some degree of control rather than be controlled, we might have even been able to scalp some gains on the upside from the big blow-off move that unfolded prior to the Energy markets doing an about face and putting in a significant and albeit short-lived top, which our indicators and technology also managed to capture, before going into the rapid plunge that occurred so dramatically with domino effect consequences that impacted the metals and currencies so negatively and the stock market more positively.
Our suggestion to buy cotton mid-morning caught almost the exact lows of the session yielding almost $800 into today’s open and about the same for Fluid Milk which we were executed into yesterday on a stop basis at 14.40. Sell both contracts right here at the market. Let’s take the $$.
That will give us some cushioning in case the Coffee contract, which we were also executed into this morning goes wrong. What has to happen today and tomorrow is for the market to hold these gains or survive a retest of some sort with success.
Have a great Tuesday
Trade Well…<br>
Savant
