Post by TradingForGod on Aug 27, 2004 19:54:40 GMT -5
Well, AZMN turned in a MEGA performance today. It may have only been a good beginning, and it may not “seal the deal”, but it was a necessary first step to begin building a technical case for a move higher. Let’s review what happened. First, AZMN closed three cents higher at 17 cents today. This was the highest daily close since 2/4/04. That by itself is potentially pretty significant. But in addition, it made this new high on volume of 468K share, 5 times this months average daily volume, and more than 10X the volume over the last week. Clearly somebody is making a move here. The volume today was the highest since 10/03 when a lot of activity transpired. Back then volume really picked up and prices almost tripled in a less than a week (what was THAT all about?) only to fall back again. In fact, if the chart I am looking at is accurate, other than last years spike there have only been a handful of days in the last ten years with volume greater than today’s, though I could be wrong about that. This month’s total volume is still quite normal because there were many days this month when very little traded, but it does set the potential for some very significant activity down the line.
Much has already been said about the prolonged basing action we have seen in Azco over the last 21 months. I won’t repeat that here, except to say that a lot of people will be looking at the top of that basing pattern for potential resistance. There are three potential resistance points associated with this pattern. The first is the peak from last October at 30 cents. I really don’t see much in the way of technical resistance until you get up there. That’s an almost 100% improvement from today’s close. And remember, last year it took five sessions to go from 10 cents to 30 cents (what WAS that all about?). It’s at least possible, if not probable we’ll see that happen again. The second resistance point is the twin spike lows at 31.3 cents from 1998 and 2000 (thin red line). I think that these lows were what caused AZMN to stall at 30 cents last year. The third potential resistance is at 37 cents. That is the Elliott Wave swing target going back to the mega-flush low at 2 cents on 6/20/03. The first rally went 28 cents to 30 cents on 10/16/03. Then followed a huge, complex, choppy b-wave pattern that put in a low at 9 cents last month (oh, what a buy!). The target is 28 cents above there (9+28=37). Should AZMN achieve this target it would be the highest price in almost two years. That by itself would be pretty impressive.
Longer term, and I don’t really know what that means, the next key resistance is the decade-old downtrend line at about 75 cents. Given that there are four connecting points (ignore the bad tic in January) this trendline is pretty significant. It should be tough to crack, but if it fails it will “officially” put an end to the downtrend that has plagued this issue as far back as I have data. That should trigger an almost immediate rally to 1.25-1.56, the 2000 and 2002 highs.
Past that, and we reach the limit of my “crystal ball”. Everything I’ve described so far is capable of happening just on pure technicals if money really starts flowing into this issue. Other factors like new discoveries would have to be present to sustain the type of increases we’re talking about here. That doesn’t mean it won’t happen. Far from it. But we’ll need time to see how this play evolves before making macro-term projections. There just simply isn’t enough chart data here to make a well-reasoned market call. But I will say this: If prices get above the Cal’00 high I see absolutely no reason why it couldn’t rally up to the contract high at 2.875. Wouldn’t that be cool?
Bottom line: I’m looking for a quick move to test 30-37 cents. If that level holds, AZMN could drop back to 16 cents one more time to make sure it really wants to go higher. IF 37 cents breaks, WATCH OUT! I’d sure hate to be the guy that sold out at 11.5 yesterday.
Blessings,
TFG
Please note: I don’t normally trade individual stocks, but I did take a position in AZMN today on the break-out. I’ll try not to let that color my technical assessment, but I wanted you to know that I am not totally unbiased here.
Much has already been said about the prolonged basing action we have seen in Azco over the last 21 months. I won’t repeat that here, except to say that a lot of people will be looking at the top of that basing pattern for potential resistance. There are three potential resistance points associated with this pattern. The first is the peak from last October at 30 cents. I really don’t see much in the way of technical resistance until you get up there. That’s an almost 100% improvement from today’s close. And remember, last year it took five sessions to go from 10 cents to 30 cents (what WAS that all about?). It’s at least possible, if not probable we’ll see that happen again. The second resistance point is the twin spike lows at 31.3 cents from 1998 and 2000 (thin red line). I think that these lows were what caused AZMN to stall at 30 cents last year. The third potential resistance is at 37 cents. That is the Elliott Wave swing target going back to the mega-flush low at 2 cents on 6/20/03. The first rally went 28 cents to 30 cents on 10/16/03. Then followed a huge, complex, choppy b-wave pattern that put in a low at 9 cents last month (oh, what a buy!). The target is 28 cents above there (9+28=37). Should AZMN achieve this target it would be the highest price in almost two years. That by itself would be pretty impressive.
Longer term, and I don’t really know what that means, the next key resistance is the decade-old downtrend line at about 75 cents. Given that there are four connecting points (ignore the bad tic in January) this trendline is pretty significant. It should be tough to crack, but if it fails it will “officially” put an end to the downtrend that has plagued this issue as far back as I have data. That should trigger an almost immediate rally to 1.25-1.56, the 2000 and 2002 highs.
Past that, and we reach the limit of my “crystal ball”. Everything I’ve described so far is capable of happening just on pure technicals if money really starts flowing into this issue. Other factors like new discoveries would have to be present to sustain the type of increases we’re talking about here. That doesn’t mean it won’t happen. Far from it. But we’ll need time to see how this play evolves before making macro-term projections. There just simply isn’t enough chart data here to make a well-reasoned market call. But I will say this: If prices get above the Cal’00 high I see absolutely no reason why it couldn’t rally up to the contract high at 2.875. Wouldn’t that be cool?
Bottom line: I’m looking for a quick move to test 30-37 cents. If that level holds, AZMN could drop back to 16 cents one more time to make sure it really wants to go higher. IF 37 cents breaks, WATCH OUT! I’d sure hate to be the guy that sold out at 11.5 yesterday.
Blessings,
TFG
Please note: I don’t normally trade individual stocks, but I did take a position in AZMN today on the break-out. I’ll try not to let that color my technical assessment, but I wanted you to know that I am not totally unbiased here.