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Post by TradingForGod on Oct 23, 2004 18:12:55 GMT -5
The equity markets continue to be weighed down after the break of the 40-day MA a little over a week ago. The S&P tried on Wednesday and Thursday to fight of the selling, finishing near the top of the days’ trading ranges. However, Friday the markets dumped off pretty hard, perhaps pushed lower by concerns about ever increasing oil prices. Whatever the reason, the S&P is at its lowest point since mid-August. Even worse, the Dow Jones Industrials are at their lowest level since late last year. The break-out over downtrend resistance that we say in the S&P amounted inspired very little follow through. The resulting sell-off has fallen just about as far as is reasonable it this drop is simply correcting the rally from early August. Pretty much any additional weakness suggest that the S&P is headed down to the August lows. The Dow is already to, and through, that point. The Nasdaq continues to perform much better. Even with Friday’s big sell off it still remains above the 40-day MA, at least for now. A close below 1900 though would weaken the technical picture here considerably as well. The stock market needs to find support, and quickly, to avoid a potentially very negative 4th quarter. Perhaps the energy markets can help bring that about. I think that both natural gas and crude oil are due for significant peaks very soon. Crude oil peaked at 55.50 on Friday, very near one of my two “exhaustion tops” at 56.00. It could be getting VERY close to the peak. Speculative funds have actually been reducing their long positions in crude oil into this rally. I still feel that whenever oil prices peak they should fall back to at least $41. That’s almost $15/bbl lower, but it’s also where oil was only a seven weeks ago. My how time flies. As for natural gas, December futures finished at $9.00 on Friday. The fundamentals for this commodity are very weak. Inventories are at record highs, and that’s with a significant chunk of US Gulf Coast production off-line because of damage from Hurricane Ivan. I believe that natural gas could fall precipitously, maybe all the way back to $6.00 in the next couple of months. If both crude oil and natural gas falter here, the equity markets could benefit as tensions about an economic slow-down ease. Here’s hoping…. God Bless, TFG
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Post by TradingForGod on Oct 23, 2004 18:12:55 GMT -5
The equity markets continue to be weighed down after the break of the 40-day MA a little over a week ago. The S&P tried on Wednesday and Thursday to fight of the selling, finishing near the top of the days’ trading ranges. However, Friday the markets dumped off pretty hard, perhaps pushed lower by concerns about ever increasing oil prices. Whatever the reason, the S&P is at its lowest point since mid-August. Even worse, the Dow Jones Industrials are at their lowest level since late last year. The break-out over downtrend resistance that we say in the S&P amounted inspired very little follow through. The resulting sell-off has fallen just about as far as is reasonable it this drop is simply correcting the rally from early August. Pretty much any additional weakness suggest that the S&P is headed down to the August lows. The Dow is already to, and through, that point. The Nasdaq continues to perform much better. Even with Friday’s big sell off it still remains above the 40-day MA, at least for now. A close below 1900 though would weaken the technical picture here considerably as well. The stock market needs to find support, and quickly, to avoid a potentially very negative 4th quarter. Perhaps the energy markets can help bring that about. I think that both natural gas and crude oil are due for significant peaks very soon. Crude oil peaked at 55.50 on Friday, very near one of my two “exhaustion tops” at 56.00. It could be getting VERY close to the peak. Speculative funds have actually been reducing their long positions in crude oil into this rally. I still feel that whenever oil prices peak they should fall back to at least $41. That’s almost $15/bbl lower, but it’s also where oil was only a seven weeks ago. My how time flies. As for natural gas, December futures finished at $9.00 on Friday. The fundamentals for this commodity are very weak. Inventories are at record highs, and that’s with a significant chunk of US Gulf Coast production off-line because of damage from Hurricane Ivan. I believe that natural gas could fall precipitously, maybe all the way back to $6.00 in the next couple of months. If both crude oil and natural gas falter here, the equity markets could benefit as tensions about an economic slow-down ease. Here’s hoping…. God Bless, TFG
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Post by TradingForGod on Oct 14, 2004 9:09:48 GMT -5
Greetings all. I am writing this from my office at work, so I won't be able to add charts to this note. But I did want to tell you of a potentially negative event for the equity market.
As you know the S&P broke out of its major down channel a couple of weeks ago. I was looking for that break-out to power the market higher as we enter the best season for stock performance. However, the rally did not last very long and stocks have faded back. Initially I thought that a good opportunity to add to length from the break-out. However, with yesterday's sell-off the S&P closed below the 40-day MA for the first time since late August. In addition, it finished below the 62% (fibonacci) retracement of the rally from 9/28. Both of these events are negative, though not necessarily bearish. I point them out primarily as a note of caution.
Seasonally, equities should rally here and I know that Savant is bullish. However, this weakness is a bit more than I would have expected under a bullish scenario. The Dow is somewhat more negative than the S&P and the Nasdaq is more bullish (Savant's call on tech stocks). The 40-day MA for the Nasdaq is at 1888. A close below there would really add more negativity to the overall market. Watch out for that.
As for crude oil, the price for prompt domestic crude has gone up $13/bbl in just six weeks. My targets for this rally was 53.75. Prices have so far peaked at 54.45 during the day, but the high close so far is 53.64. If prices take out the recent highs I think oil will enter an exhaustion rally phase that will cause a rally to $56-$62. Yikes! Watch for that. When the market does peak, the MINIMUM target for a sell-off is around $41, but prices could ultimately work lower than that. The big key is going to be how world oil demand is affected by chronically high prices. THe world is betting on high prices for a long time. You have to go out to late 2008 to find crude oil lower than $40 on the futures market. Think about that next time you want to buy a car!
God bless you all. Peace,
TFG
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Post by TradingForGod on Oct 14, 2004 9:09:48 GMT -5
Greetings all. I am writing this from my office at work, so I won't be able to add charts to this note. But I did want to tell you of a potentially negative event for the equity market.
As you know the S&P broke out of its major down channel a couple of weeks ago. I was looking for that break-out to power the market higher as we enter the best season for stock performance. However, the rally did not last very long and stocks have faded back. Initially I thought that a good opportunity to add to length from the break-out. However, with yesterday's sell-off the S&P closed below the 40-day MA for the first time since late August. In addition, it finished below the 62% (fibonacci) retracement of the rally from 9/28. Both of these events are negative, though not necessarily bearish. I point them out primarily as a note of caution.
Seasonally, equities should rally here and I know that Savant is bullish. However, this weakness is a bit more than I would have expected under a bullish scenario. The Dow is somewhat more negative than the S&P and the Nasdaq is more bullish (Savant's call on tech stocks). The 40-day MA for the Nasdaq is at 1888. A close below there would really add more negativity to the overall market. Watch out for that.
As for crude oil, the price for prompt domestic crude has gone up $13/bbl in just six weeks. My targets for this rally was 53.75. Prices have so far peaked at 54.45 during the day, but the high close so far is 53.64. If prices take out the recent highs I think oil will enter an exhaustion rally phase that will cause a rally to $56-$62. Yikes! Watch for that. When the market does peak, the MINIMUM target for a sell-off is around $41, but prices could ultimately work lower than that. The big key is going to be how world oil demand is affected by chronically high prices. THe world is betting on high prices for a long time. You have to go out to late 2008 to find crude oil lower than $40 on the futures market. Think about that next time you want to buy a car!
God bless you all. Peace,
TFG
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Post by TradingForGod on Oct 6, 2004 20:48:48 GMT -5
Today was a potentially very important turning point for AZMN technically. After pounding into key support at the 40-day MA at 14.5 for several days, the stock turned around and finished higher yesterday. Today it followed through to the upside, finishing at 18 cents and breaking minor downtrend resistance. This sets the stage for an advance to new highs though it may take a little time for the rally to get organized. The prolonged sideways correction of the recent spike high at 22 has left AZMN with no trend and BB resistance is just overhead at 19.5. However, if 19.5 is bested I think that this stock can easily work its way up to the initial swing target off the July low. That is at about 27.5. It’s also very possible that Azco’s next rally will “extend” to the 1.618 Fibonacci objective at 35.5. That lines up really we longer term swing target at 37 cents we’ve talked about before. As CT and Savant have pointed out, this type of rally could very well be just a down-payment on a MUCH larger rally to come. Here’s hoping! Polish wrote:" I “think” the answer to this question is as follows. HDWR has been in a progressive rally phase since the mid-03 low at around $13. The first rally topped out at about $29, a $16 increase, and was followed by a corrective sell off to around $19. This was an almost perfect 62% (Fibonacci) retracement. The rally from that point has proceeded in an impulsive, 5 wave fashion and it is nearing the end of that 5th wave. The swing target off the $13 and $19 lows is at about $36. The primary swing target for the smaller sub-rally from $19, where the 5th wave equals the 1st wave in length is about 35.5. Pretty close I would say. That is an EXCELLENT place to take profits on length. By the way, this most recent new high has come on lower momentum, leaving a classic momentum divergence on the chart. That only adds to the toppy look to this chart. Hope this helps. One final note: I have recently come across a website for a company called May Holdings. It is run by a man named Andrew Bullians. I have never met him. In fact, he lives in Belize! So this is not an endorsement of him or his company. But he has a very interesting vision for His life, one very near and dear to my heart, much like CT’s. He sends out a periodic newsletter and the most recent one caught my eye. I am including a link to it here for your use and enjoyment. It is very thought provoking. You can view it at www.injesus.com/Groups/ViewMessage.cfm?MessageId=RB006PKC&UCD=tkz. His website is www.fourwindsfinancial.net. May God richly bless each of you, TFG
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Post by TradingForGod on Oct 6, 2004 20:48:48 GMT -5
Today was a potentially very important turning point for AZMN technically. After pounding into key support at the 40-day MA at 14.5 for several days, the stock turned around and finished higher yesterday. Today it followed through to the upside, finishing at 18 cents and breaking minor downtrend resistance. This sets the stage for an advance to new highs though it may take a little time for the rally to get organized. The prolonged sideways correction of the recent spike high at 22 has left AZMN with no trend and BB resistance is just overhead at 19.5. However, if 19.5 is bested I think that this stock can easily work its way up to the initial swing target off the July low. That is at about 27.5. It’s also very possible that Azco’s next rally will “extend” to the 1.618 Fibonacci objective at 35.5. That lines up really we longer term swing target at 37 cents we’ve talked about before. As CT and Savant have pointed out, this type of rally could very well be just a down-payment on a MUCH larger rally to come. Here’s hoping! Polish wrote:" I “think” the answer to this question is as follows. HDWR has been in a progressive rally phase since the mid-03 low at around $13. The first rally topped out at about $29, a $16 increase, and was followed by a corrective sell off to around $19. This was an almost perfect 62% (Fibonacci) retracement. The rally from that point has proceeded in an impulsive, 5 wave fashion and it is nearing the end of that 5th wave. The swing target off the $13 and $19 lows is at about $36. The primary swing target for the smaller sub-rally from $19, where the 5th wave equals the 1st wave in length is about 35.5. Pretty close I would say. That is an EXCELLENT place to take profits on length. By the way, this most recent new high has come on lower momentum, leaving a classic momentum divergence on the chart. That only adds to the toppy look to this chart. Hope this helps. One final note: I have recently come across a website for a company called May Holdings. It is run by a man named Andrew Bullians. I have never met him. In fact, he lives in Belize! So this is not an endorsement of him or his company. But he has a very interesting vision for His life, one very near and dear to my heart, much like CT’s. He sends out a periodic newsletter and the most recent one caught my eye. I am including a link to it here for your use and enjoyment. It is very thought provoking. You can view it at www.injesus.com/Groups/ViewMessage.cfm?MessageId=RB006PKC&UCD=tkz. His website is www.fourwindsfinancial.net. May God richly bless each of you, TFG
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Post by TradingForGod on Oct 2, 2004 17:58:56 GMT -5
A couple of weeks ago, I cautioned that the Dow and the S&P had reached critical downtrend resistance and I was looking for a pullback. I suggested covering some long exposure into that dip. The S&P dropped back 3% over the next week. Last week, I suggested reinitiating that length at 1100is near the 40-day MA. Over the last week, the stock market has firmed, dramatically so on Friday. The S&P particularly is at a critical juncture. The pull-back satisfied all the requirements for a correction, at Friday’s close was the highest since early July. ANY additional strength early next week breaks the major downtrend that has been in place since the 1st quarter. This would initially target this years high over 1160 and the 2002 double top around 1175. If THAT level fails, the ensuing rally could be equal in magnitude to the 2003 rally and could eventually reach 1453. It’s WAY too early to start talking in those terms yet, but it could certainly happen. I just wanted to let you know. Be prepared to act quickly to capture this opportunity if it presents itself. God bless, TFG
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Post by TradingForGod on Oct 2, 2004 17:58:56 GMT -5
A couple of weeks ago, I cautioned that the Dow and the S&P had reached critical downtrend resistance and I was looking for a pullback. I suggested covering some long exposure into that dip. The S&P dropped back 3% over the next week. Last week, I suggested reinitiating that length at 1100is near the 40-day MA. Over the last week, the stock market has firmed, dramatically so on Friday. The S&P particularly is at a critical juncture. The pull-back satisfied all the requirements for a correction, at Friday’s close was the highest since early July. ANY additional strength early next week breaks the major downtrend that has been in place since the 1st quarter. This would initially target this years high over 1160 and the 2002 double top around 1175. If THAT level fails, the ensuing rally could be equal in magnitude to the 2003 rally and could eventually reach 1453. It’s WAY too early to start talking in those terms yet, but it could certainly happen. I just wanted to let you know. Be prepared to act quickly to capture this opportunity if it presents itself. God bless, TFG
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Post by TradingForGod on Sept 30, 2004 22:12:24 GMT -5
Polish asked me to take a look at FBR (Friedman Billings Ramsey Group), so I thought I would today. The chart below shows that it has been in a six week rally that peaked last week right at the swing high from last June right near $21. It has since dropped back to 19ish. The 20 and 40-day MAs as well as the lower BB are just below between 18.50-18.00. 18.00 is also the 50% retracement of the rally up from early August. Stochastics are very oversold, and should turn up shortly. Momentum is negative, but that is a lagging indicator anyway. Putting it all together, I think that FBR is a buy between 18.50-18.00 with a stop below 17.25, the 62% (Fibonacci) retracement of the entire rally. A close above 21.11 is a bullish break-out that targets at least 24.00 with a rally to the March high at 28.70 a possibility. Hope this helps. God Bless, TFG
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Post by TradingForGod on Sept 30, 2004 22:12:24 GMT -5
Polish asked me to take a look at FBR (Friedman Billings Ramsey Group), so I thought I would today. The chart below shows that it has been in a six week rally that peaked last week right at the swing high from last June right near $21. It has since dropped back to 19ish. The 20 and 40-day MAs as well as the lower BB are just below between 18.50-18.00. 18.00 is also the 50% retracement of the rally up from early August. Stochastics are very oversold, and should turn up shortly. Momentum is negative, but that is a lagging indicator anyway. Putting it all together, I think that FBR is a buy between 18.50-18.00 with a stop below 17.25, the 62% (Fibonacci) retracement of the entire rally. A close above 21.11 is a bullish break-out that targets at least 24.00 with a rally to the March high at 28.70 a possibility. Hope this helps. God Bless, TFG
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Post by TradingForGod on Sept 29, 2004 10:06:39 GMT -5
absolutely...the short term movements in the indices provide the most efficient way to "trade", as opposed to invest, in the stock market.
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Post by TradingForGod on Sept 29, 2004 10:06:39 GMT -5
absolutely...the short term movements in the indices provide the most efficient way to "trade", as opposed to invest, in the stock market.
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Post by TradingForGod on Sept 28, 2004 22:10:15 GMT -5
From last time: “…The S&P could fall back to 1100ish and the Nasdaq to 1840-1825. But I think that should stop the decline. If it doesn’t, something more bearish is going on here…If you were smart enough to follow my advice (just kidding, I am not THAT conceited) and liquidated length into trendline resistance a couple of weeks ago, the area listed above should be good support to try and buy back in…”
The S&P 500 fell to 1101 today, right at the lower BB and the 40-day MA (green and blue lines respectively), and then turned and bounced back to close at 1110, up 6.5 points. The Nasdaq didn’t quite fall to the target range, making a low at 1852 today, but it too reversed hard off the 40-day MA. Was this the end of the correction? It’s too early to tell just yet, but I can say that so far the market has stopped where it needs to. A rally up past the 20-day MA at 1117 is positive and a close above the last swing high at 1131 is VERY bullish for a return to the highs from earlier this year. A close below 1100 now is not necessarily bearish, but it’s CERTAINLY not bullish. I suggest you reset length covered into major resistance now looking for a retest of the downtrend line. A close below 1100 is the stop on this new length, and should be sufficient to scale back core positions even more. God bless, TFG
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Post by TradingForGod on Sept 28, 2004 22:10:15 GMT -5
From last time: “…The S&P could fall back to 1100ish and the Nasdaq to 1840-1825. But I think that should stop the decline. If it doesn’t, something more bearish is going on here…If you were smart enough to follow my advice (just kidding, I am not THAT conceited) and liquidated length into trendline resistance a couple of weeks ago, the area listed above should be good support to try and buy back in…”
The S&P 500 fell to 1101 today, right at the lower BB and the 40-day MA (green and blue lines respectively), and then turned and bounced back to close at 1110, up 6.5 points. The Nasdaq didn’t quite fall to the target range, making a low at 1852 today, but it too reversed hard off the 40-day MA. Was this the end of the correction? It’s too early to tell just yet, but I can say that so far the market has stopped where it needs to. A rally up past the 20-day MA at 1117 is positive and a close above the last swing high at 1131 is VERY bullish for a return to the highs from earlier this year. A close below 1100 now is not necessarily bearish, but it’s CERTAINLY not bullish. I suggest you reset length covered into major resistance now looking for a retest of the downtrend line. A close below 1100 is the stop on this new length, and should be sufficient to scale back core positions even more. God bless, TFG
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Post by TradingForGod on Sept 22, 2004 18:35:05 GMT -5
Greetings from Tulsa, OK. I am up here working at my new job with an oil company. I am just here for the week and then will be back in beautiful Houston, TX. Because I don’t have access to all my charts at home I can’t produce a graph to attach to the discussion, but I did want to talk about the recent sell-off we have seen in equities. Remember from the last several global discussions, that I have been focused on the downtrend line off the Feb and Jun highs. The Dow was the first to test that line early this month and I thought it would be hard or impossible for the S&P and Nasdaq to do the same. But sure enough, the Dow stalled out at resistance and the S&P caught up and tested its trendline as well. BOTH TRENDLINES HELD. Thus this decent sell off. Today, the Dow closed below its 40-day MA for the first time in a month. The S&P and Nasdaq are still above this key benchmark. Momentum is negative and stochastics are pointed lower and not nearly oversold. That’s pretty negative. On the other hand, MA structure remains positive, though not as much as it has been recently. In addition, the Dow is nearing the bottom of the BB range and the ADX trend indicator shows no trend at all (no surprise there). Putting it all together, I think that equities have a decent chance for some additional weakness in the short term. The S&P could fall back to 1100ish and the Nasdaq to 1840-1825. But I think that should stop the decline. If it doesn’t, something more bearish is going on here. If you were smart enough to follow my advice (just kidding, I am not THAT conceited : and liquidated length into trendline resistance a couple of weeks ago, the areas listed above should be good support to try and buy back in. Good luck to us all. God bless, TFG
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