Post by Savant on Jul 9, 2004 3:18:47 GMT -5
Can Friday foment a stock market reversal? – Published 04:15 EDT July 09 2004
We opined early Thursday that the after hours report late Wednesday, regarding Yahoo’s results that came in, in line with expectations and that unexciting fact caused after hours trading to plummet, making any chance of mounting a strong rebound Thursday even more remote, barring some kind of weekly job data miracle number or other surprise event. The amazing thing is, we did get somewhat of a miracle jobs number of 39,000 less claims for the previous week and that did instigate a strongish rally attempt for the early part of the session, but as the day wore, the market could not sustain those gains and as we had promulgated the day before, that Stock market indices were deteriorating technically and that was not a good sign, with monthly lows of June have already been threatened and taken out and we are still in the first week of July, was a developing technically very bad sign and there are some ominous looking gaps at higher levels and potentially additional gaps could be in play Thursday, that could in the worst of cases, accelerate downside activity. Unfortunately, that is more or less what happened by the closing bell as losses increased.
However, we have to remember, that in this kind of broad trading range that has been established since late last year, that the lower we go, the greater potential for a snap back rally exists and the jobs report was definitely an encouraging development that could result in a July employment improvement of as much as the 200,000 ~ 250,000 jobs that they were looking for in June.
That seems to be the more likely scenario for Friday and it would certainly be a welcome development to see a late rally unfold.
A lower close on Friday or continuing sell-off would be an unwelcome development for the coming week to bring in even lower prices, so Friday is a pivotal day that could influence the outcome for the coming weeks and will determine really whether we are in the grip of a developing bear correction of several weeks or whether this was just a mild post rate hike pullback that may be running its course...
Have a great Friday and weekend
Best Rgds
Savant
We opined early Thursday that the after hours report late Wednesday, regarding Yahoo’s results that came in, in line with expectations and that unexciting fact caused after hours trading to plummet, making any chance of mounting a strong rebound Thursday even more remote, barring some kind of weekly job data miracle number or other surprise event. The amazing thing is, we did get somewhat of a miracle jobs number of 39,000 less claims for the previous week and that did instigate a strongish rally attempt for the early part of the session, but as the day wore, the market could not sustain those gains and as we had promulgated the day before, that Stock market indices were deteriorating technically and that was not a good sign, with monthly lows of June have already been threatened and taken out and we are still in the first week of July, was a developing technically very bad sign and there are some ominous looking gaps at higher levels and potentially additional gaps could be in play Thursday, that could in the worst of cases, accelerate downside activity. Unfortunately, that is more or less what happened by the closing bell as losses increased.
However, we have to remember, that in this kind of broad trading range that has been established since late last year, that the lower we go, the greater potential for a snap back rally exists and the jobs report was definitely an encouraging development that could result in a July employment improvement of as much as the 200,000 ~ 250,000 jobs that they were looking for in June.
That seems to be the more likely scenario for Friday and it would certainly be a welcome development to see a late rally unfold.
A lower close on Friday or continuing sell-off would be an unwelcome development for the coming week to bring in even lower prices, so Friday is a pivotal day that could influence the outcome for the coming weeks and will determine really whether we are in the grip of a developing bear correction of several weeks or whether this was just a mild post rate hike pullback that may be running its course...
Have a great Friday and weekend
Best Rgds
Savant
